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Welcome to the latest San Francisco Real Estate Market Report from Kinoko Real Estate! As your trusted local Real Estate experts in San Francisco, we're committed to providing you with the most accurate and insightful data to guide your home buying or selling journey in this dynamic city.
The Big Story
Quick Take:
- Mortgage rates continue to slowly move downwards, as the Federal Reserve continues its rate cuts.
- Inventories remain high, as new supply is hitting the market faster than existing homes are being sold.
- Last Wednesday, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.50%-3.75%.
Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.
*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.
Although they are on the decline, interest rates remain much higher than the inflation rate
Unfortunately, we have yet to see mortgage rates drop below the 6% mark, as the Federal Reserve continues its cutting cycle, after its third consecutive cut to the federal funds rate in December. Although many are hopeful that we will continue to see rate cuts into 2026, the future of the federal funds rate is relatively uncertain. While there’s still roughly a month and a half before the next interest rate decision, CME’s FedWatch tool is predicting roughly a 25% chance that we see another rate cut in January. As we all know, the federal funds rate is the most important factor in the determination of interest rates, so paying attention to what the Fed is doing is pivotal! We’ll likely see an increase in the probability of another rate cut if some of the new/delayed economic data that’s coming out provides a cause for concern.
Inventory levels have remained remarkably steady throughout the entire year
Throughout much of the year, inventories at a national level have remained remarkably steady, with most months hovering near the 1.5 million mark. With that being said, in the month of October, we saw inventory levels at roughly 1,520,000, representing a 10.95% increase on a year-over-year basis. During that same time period, we saw more than 384,000 new homes hit the market, representing an increase of 5.08% on a year-over-year basis. We also saw the median sale price for a home increase by 2.06%, bringing the median home value to $415,200.
The Fed continues to cut rates, as the broader market faces uncertainty
Right now, we’re in the midst of a relatively interesting period of time, economically speaking. During the government shutdown, not only were there very few publicly released economic datapoints, but many offices responsible for collecting data were unable to. This means we’re receiving economic data that has been tremendously delayed. Uncertainty like this, of course, does not bode well with countless entities, like lenders, markets, and most importantly, the Federal Reserve. Since the Fed is so reliant on public data that has been inaccessible/delayed given the government shutdown, it’s hard to tell what they will do next with interest rates. Luckily for homebuyers and sellers alike, we saw another quarter-point cut in December, but overall, it’s unclear whether or not this cut cycle will continue.
However, this is just what we’re seeing at a national level. As we all know, real estate is incredibly localized, so be sure to check out your local lowdown below!
