Potrero Hill spent most of 2025 in a slump. Then, without much warning, it didn't. Homes started moving in under two weeks, over-asking sales became the norm instead of the exception, and by this spring nearly every property over $2 million in the neighborhood was fielding multiple offers.
The shift that started last October is one of the sharpest Potrero Hill has seen in years, and it hasn't landed evenly.
Key Takeaways
- Median sale price in Potrero Hill hit $1,545,000 in the nine months from October 2025 through June 2026, up 38.6% from the same nine-month stretch the year before.
- Homes sold in a median of 13 days across the last three quarters, the fastest pace this neighborhood has seen in more than a decade.
- Every home that sold for more than $2 million since October 2025 went over asking. Every single one.
- Single-family homes pulled further ahead of condos: 94% sold over asking in the recent stretch versus 65% for condos.
- Entry-level condos under $1 million are still catching up, with 44% selling over asking and a 26-day median timeline, well behind the rest of the market.
When Did Potrero Hill's Market Actually Turn?
It turned in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the shift is easy to pinpoint.
The third quarter of 2025 was the softest stretch this market has seen in years. Median sale price dropped to $925,000, homes sat for a median of 49 days, and only 39% sold over asking.
Then Q4 2025 arrived and reversed nearly all of it at once.
Quarter | Closed Sales | Median Price | Median Days on Market | % Sold Over Asking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 Q1 | 21 | $1,200,000 | 32 | 52% |
2025 Q2 | 38 | $1,165,000 | 24 | 50% |
2025 Q3 | 31 | $925,000 | 49 | 39% |
2025 Q4 | 29 | $1,502,500 | 14 | 83% |
2026 Q1 | 21 | $1,540,000 | 13 | 71% |
2026 Q2 | 40 | $1,600,000 | 12 | 78% |
This wasn't a couple of high-dollar sales pulling the median up on their own. Q4 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 rank among the fastest-selling quarters on the hill in more than a decade, and at the same time, three of the five highest-priced quarters. A market rarely holds top-tier pace and top-tier pricing together for three quarters running. Potrero Hill just did.
Every Home Over $2 Million Sold Over Asking
Break the rebound stretch (October 2025 through June 2026, 90 closed sales) down by price tier, and the story gets more specific than "the market is hot."
Price Tier | Closed Sales | % Sold Over Asking | Median Days on Market |
|---|---|---|---|
Under $1M | 25 | 44% | 26 |
$1M – $1.5M | 18 | 78% | 17 |
$1.5M – $2M | 18 | 89% | 12 |
$2M – $3M | 18 | 100% | 12 |
$3M+ | 11 | 100% | 12 |
That's not a typo. All 29 Potrero Hill sales above $2 million since October closed over asking price. Buyers at that level aren't negotiating right now, they're competing. For the broader citywide backdrop, the latest San Francisco market report helps put this neighborhood rebound in context.
We saw this up close at 850 Wisconsin Street, a five-bedroom home we listed at $2,998,000 in late May. It drew 7 offers, 6 of them all-cash, went pending within 9 days, and closed on June 29 at $4,540,000, or 151% of asking.
Single-Family Homes Are Pulling Away From Condos
The rebound isn't landing evenly across property types either. Here's the same nine-month soft stretch (January to September 2025) set against the rebound stretch that followed:
Property Type | Soft Stretch Median | Soft Stretch % Over Asking | Rebound Stretch Median | Rebound Stretch % Over Asking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Condos | $1,037,500 | 35% | $1,232,000 | 65% |
Single-Family Homes | $1,705,000 | 76% | $2,010,000 | 94% |
Both segments improved, but single-family homes moved further and faster. Condo buyers gained real leverage back over the past nine months even with prices rising, competing for roughly a third fewer over-asking sales than single-family buyers.
Entry-Level Condos Are Still Catching Up
Not every part of Potrero Hill has caught the same wave. Condos under $1 million improved compared to the soft stretch (26 days on market versus 76, 44% over asking versus 20%), but they're still the one segment where buyers have real room to negotiate. One in five of these sales still needed a price cut before closing, the highest rate of any price tier in the neighborhood.
In our experience, this is where pricing strategy matters most. If you're searching for a starter condo on the hill, current listings can help show where the market still favors you. If you're selling one, price it carefully and expect a longer runway than the rest of the neighborhood.
Bottom Line
Potrero Hill's market didn't just recover from a slow 2025, it came back stronger than most of the last decade, and it came back fast. If you own anything above $1.5 million on the hill, especially a single-family home, you're likely looking at one of the best windows to sell this neighborhood has had in years. If you're hunting for a condo under $1 million, you've still got some leverage, at least for now.
Want to talk through what this means for your own timeline? Get in touch.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Potrero Hill a buyer's or seller's market right now?
For anything priced above $1.5 million, it's firmly a seller's market. Every home over $2 million that sold between October 2025 and June 2026 went over asking, and the median time on market across that stretch was just 13 days. Below $1 million, buyers still have more room to negotiate.
What is the median home price in Potrero Hill in 2026?
Through the first half of 2026, the median closed sale price in Potrero Hill was $1,540,000, up from $1,205,000 over the same stretch of 2025, a 27.8% increase year over year.
How fast are homes selling in Potrero Hill?
Homes have sold in a median of 12 to 14 days across the last three quarters (Q4 2025 through Q2 2026), the fastest pace this market has seen in more than a decade.
Are single-family homes or condos selling faster in Potrero Hill?
Single-family homes are outperforming condos. In the rebound stretch since October 2025, 94% of single-family homes sold over asking compared to 65% of condos, and single-family median prices reached $2,010,000.
Is now a good time to sell a condo in Potrero Hill?
It depends on price point. Condos above $1.5 million are selling quickly and often over asking. Condos under $1 million are improving but still see price cuts more often than any other segment, so pricing strategy matters more here than elsewhere on the hill.
Data is current as of July 21, 2026, and reflects closed Potrero Hill sales reported to SFAR MLS. Statistics may shift as pending sales close and additional listings are reported.
Kevin Gueco, CA DRE# 01461677 | Nini Gueco, CA DRE# 01908351