The Local Lowdown
Quick Take:
Single-family prices cooled slightly from June across most of the region, though Marin County still holds a 5.26% year-over-year gain at a median $1,750,000, while Sonoma and Napa Counties slipped modestly compared to last July.
Inventory has tightened sharply. Single-family listings for sale fell to 2,645 units in July, down 34.04% year-over-year and 17.96% from June, with new listings off nearly 25% from last July.
Homes are selling faster nearly everywhere. Marin County single-family homes found buyers in a median of 20 days, a 41.18% improvement over last July, and months of supply fell in all four counties.
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.
Marin holds its ground while the rest of the region eases off summer peaks
July delivered a familiar late-summer softening in the North Bay's single-family market, but the year-over-year picture remains constructive at the two largest ends of the price spectrum. Marin County posted a median sale price of $1,750,000, down 3.98% from June's $1,822,500 but still 5.26% above last July's $1,662,500. Solano County was the month's standout on a monthly basis, with the median climbing 3.59% from June to $606,000, its highest reading since August 2025 and 1.06% above last July. Sonoma County pulled back to $835,000, a 4.57% dip from June and 1.18% below last July, ending a five-month stretch above the $869,000 mark. Napa County continued its even run at $896,500, down 2.55% from June and 3.08% year-over-year.
The condo picture flipped relative to recent months, with the higher-priced counties leading. Marin County condos rose to a median of $707,500, up 8.85% year-over-year and the strongest reading since February 2025. Napa County condos rebounded hard from June's unusually low $510,000 to $724,500, a 1.33% year-over-year gain. Sonoma County condos told the opposite story at $420,000, down 18.84% from last July, while Solano County condos slipped 13.88% to $302,500. Condo medias in these smaller-volume markets swing widely month to month, so the direction of travel matters more than any single print.
Supply evaporates as listings dry up
The defining story of July was the disappearance of inventory. Single-family homes for sale fell to 2,645 units, a 17.96% drop from June's 3,224 and a striking 34.04% decline from the 4,010 units available last July. That is the leanest July supply in the entire two-year data series and a full 1,365 fewer homes than buyers had to choose from a year ago. The condo side followed the same path, with 361 units for sale, down 19.42% from June and 21.52% year-over-year.
Sellers simply are not coming to market. New single-family listings totaled 889 in July, down 24.98% from last July's 1,185 and the lowest July count on record here. Condo new listings fell 21.88% to 100. Meanwhile, demand held firm: 981 single-family homes closed in July, up 2.51% year-over-year, and condo sales rose 10.84% to 92. Steady absorption against a shrinking pool of listings is exactly the combination that keeps pricing power with sellers, and it suggests the supply squeeze will carry into the fall.
Marin's 20-day market sets the pace
Speed improved across nearly the entire region. Marin County single-family homes sold in a median of 20 days, up slightly from June's 18 but 41.18% faster than the 34 days recorded last July. Solano County held steady at 31 days for the third consecutive month, a 16.22% improvement year-over-year. Sonoma County ticked up to 35 days from 32 in June, yet that still represents a 14.63% gain on last July's 41 days. Napa County remained the region's slowest single-family market at 43 days, essentially flat with June's 45 and 4.88% above last July.
Condos were more scattered, as they usually are. Napa County condos posted a remarkable 17 days on market, down from 78 in June and 81.91% faster than last July's 94 days, although that figure remains on a small number of closings. Marin County condos came in at 55 days, a 15.38% improvement year-over-year, and Sonoma County condos at 47 days improved 9.62%. Solano County was the clear laggard, with condos taking 63 days versus 31 last July, roughly double the time.
Sellers take firm control heading into fall
When determining whether a market is a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market, we look at the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has less than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.
July's inventory collapse pushed the North Bay decisively toward sellers. Marin County's single-family market now sits at just 1.7 months of supply, down from 2.4 in June and a dramatic 60.47% below last July's 4.3 months, making it the tightest market in the region by a wide margin. Solano County single-family homes fell to 2.8 months, down 30% year-over-year, placing it firmly in seller's territory as well. Sonoma County landed at 3.2 months, a 39.62% year-over-year decline that puts it right at the balanced threshold and leaning toward sellers. Napa County remains the region's lone buyers' market at 6.1 months, although that is a significant improvement from June's 7.7 months and 33.70% below last July's 9.2.
Condos remain the most buyer-friendly side of the market, but they are tightening fast too. Marin County condos dropped to 3.1 months of supply, down from 4.8 in June and 47.46% below last July, essentially a balanced market now. Sonoma County condos sit at 4.0 months, down 28.57% year-over-year, with Solano County at 4.6 months and Napa County at 6.7 months. Taken together, single-family sellers across three of four counties are negotiating from a position of real strength as the market moves into the fall, while condo buyers, especially in Napa and Solano Counties, still have room to be selective.
