Updated October 13, 2026. Data through September 30, 2026.
Are Noe Valley houses selling above asking price?
Yes, and more often than a year ago. Of the 129 single-family homes that sold in Noe Valley from October 2025 through September 2026, 83% closed above asking price, up from 69% in the 12 months before. The typical house went under contract 10 days after listing, and prices per square foot are up about 27%.
Here's what we're seeing: competition rose, supply stayed tight, and the number we trust most is price per square foot. This update covers houses first, then condos and tenancy-in-common (TIC) units, in Noe Valley, using San Francisco Association of Realtors (SFAR) MLS sales through September 30, 2026. We never blend the three property types, because they sell at very different prices and speeds.
What do the latest Noe Valley house numbers show?
Over the last 12 months, Noe Valley houses sold for more per square foot and with less negotiation than the year before, at a pace that was as quick or quicker. For comparison with the wider city, see our San Francisco market update.
Measure | Now | A year ago |
|---|---|---|
Sold above asking | 83% (107 of 129) | 69% (78 of 113) |
Median days to contract | 10 | 12 |
Sales that needed a price cut | 2% (2 of 129) | 11% (12 of 113) |
Median price per sq ft | $1,662 | $1,304 |
Median sale price | $3,200,000 | $2,750,000 |
Closed sales | 129 | 113 |
July through September 2026 versus the same months of 2025:
- Sold above asking: 87% (20 of 23), up from 55% (12 of 22)
- Median days to contract: 8, down from 12.5
- Median price per sq ft: $1,820, up from $1,279
- New listings: 35, the same as the 35 in the same months of 2025
- Homes going under contract: 24, up from 22
September on its own: 9 houses sold, with a median price of $3,125,000 and a median of 7 days to contract. That's a small number, so the longer view leads.
What changed in the Noe Valley real estate market?
Competition and price per square foot changed in ways the numbers can support. Over 12 months, the share of houses sold above asking rose 14 points, and our statistical check puts that gain between about 3 and 25 points. Over the last three months the jump was 32 points (55% to 87%), with a range of roughly 6 to 55 points.
Price per square foot is the number we'd trust. The 12-month median sale price rose 16%, but it could plausibly sit anywhere from about 2% lower to 40% higher, because the mix of homes that sell each year shifts a lot. Price per square foot rose about 27%, and the plausible range of about 17% to 39% stays well above zero. It also rose in each of the last three quarters compared with a year earlier.
We can check this another way. In the 10 years of data we track, 56 Noe Valley houses have sold twice. The median gain between those sales was 50%, over a median of 5.2 years. That's a sanity check on long-run direction, not a forecast.
Where the gains are. They're broad. Price per square foot rose about 21% for three-bedroom houses ($1,359 to $1,650), 28% for four-bedroom houses ($1,287 to $1,642), 28% for houses built in 1927 or earlier ($1,294 to $1,659) and 20% for newer ones ($1,401 to $1,681). Even at the low end of the plausible range, every one of those groups is up at least 6%.
Entry-level houses moved too. Among the lowest-priced quarter of sales (under $2.35 million, 31 sales), 81% sold above asking, up from 66%, and the median went from 24 days to contract to 13.
Why is demand rising? In 2026, NPR reported in "AI wealth is creating a 'mansion shortage' and upending San Francisco's housing market" (September 1, 2026) that Compass found the citywide median sales price up 25% from a year earlier, and that Compass chief economist Mike Simonsen counted 44 June sales at least $1 million over asking. NPR ties the surge to AI-industry wealth and a lack of single-family supply.
Mortgage rates don't explain it. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.40% on October 8, 2026, versus 6.30% a year earlier, and it climbed from 6.71% on September 3. Our numbers fit that pattern for houses: more competition and higher price per square foot, in a market where supply hasn't grown. MLS data can't show who the buyers are, so we won't guess.
Is Noe Valley a buyer's or seller's market?
Right now it's a seller's market. Months of supply, meaning how long current listings would last at the recent sales pace, was 1.0 for Noe Valley houses in September 2026, with 8 houses on the market at month end (we count active and contingent listings, where an offer is accepted but conditions haven't cleared). Under 3 months favors sellers, 3 to 6 is balanced, and over 6 favors buyers.
Noe Valley houses have been a seller's market in 56 of the last 60 months. The other four were balanced, with a peak of 3.9 months in September 2023, and none were a buyer's market.
Are Noe Valley home prices at a record?
They're at the highest level in the 10 years of data we track. The 12-month median house price of $3.20 million is 45% above September 2016 ($2.20 million), about 3.8% a year before inflation, and 23% above the 10-year average of $2.60 million. Price per square foot is up 49% over the decade, from $1,116 to $1,662.
It's also a rebound. The 12-month median fell to $2.29 million in September 2023 and has since risen 39%. We can't say it's the highest ever, only that it's the highest in this 10-year window.
How are Noe Valley condos and TICs doing?
Condos are nearly as competitive as houses, while TICs are cooler. Houses were about 53% of Noe Valley sales in the last 12 months, condos 31% and TICs 14%. A TIC is shared ownership of a building, where co-owners sign a separate agreement about who occupies which unit.
Measure | Houses | Condos | TICs |
|---|---|---|---|
Closed sales | 129 | 77 | 35 |
Median sale price | $3,200,000 | $1,675,000 | $1,175,000 |
Median price per sq ft | $1,662 | $1,221 | $1,097 |
Sold above asking | 83% | 78% | 40% |
Median days to contract | 10 | 13 | 23 |
Months of supply (September) | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.4 |
Condos followed the same pattern as houses, with less intensity. Above-asking sales rose from 64% to 78%, and price per square foot rose about 9% (a plausible range of about 2% to 20%). Supply is a little deeper at 1.8 months, which is still a seller's market.
TICs are the exception. Price per square foot rose about 8% (about 3% to 17%), but above-asking sales fell from 80% to 33% when we compare April through September 2026 with the same months of 2025, a drop of 47 points with a range of roughly 17 to 76. At 3.4 months of supply, TICs are in balanced territory.
This is also why one Noe Valley "median" can mislead. Across all property types, the 12-month median is $2.25 million (245 sales), which describes neither a $3.20 million house nor a $1.18 million TIC. We keep the types separate.
What does this mean for Noe Valley buyers and sellers?
If you're buying a Noe Valley house
Our recommendation is to get pre-approved and set your maximum offer before you tour, because 83% of houses sold above asking and about 4 in 10 went under contract within a week. Our buying process walks through each step.
- Four-bedroom houses move fastest. 25 of 47 went under contract within a week of listing.
- Talk to a lender about rate locks and buydowns now. The 30-year average rose from 6.71% on September 3 to 7.40% on October 8, 2026.
- Look for the listings that have sat. In October, 10 houses were listed and only 1 had been on the market 60 days or more. Condos offer more room: 4 of 15 had been listed 60 days or more.
- Widen the search if you need to. Neighboring Bernal Heights is a natural comparison.
If you're selling a Noe Valley house
The goal is to launch fully prepared at a price grounded in current sales, not last year's. Our selling process covers preparation and timing, and you can start with a free home valuation.
- Price from current comps. Houses that sold from July through September 2026 had a median of $1,820 per square foot, versus $1,279 a year earlier. Median price can swing with the mix of homes sold, so we compare on price per square foot.
- Mind the calendar. Over the last 10 years, June (12% of sales), October (11%), November (10%) and April (10%) were the busiest months. Homes that closed in November, December and January had median days on market of 17, 20 and 21, versus 11 to 14 in most other months. Our recommendation is to list in the next few weeks if you want to sell this year, because homes that closed from November through January took noticeably longer to go under contract. For the citywide picture, see our guide to the best time to sell a home in San Francisco.
- Prepare before you list. With a median of 10 days to contract, buyers decide fast, so photos, disclosures and pre-inspections should be done before launch.
What should you watch in the Noe Valley market this fall?
Here's the line between what we've measured and what we haven't. The rise in above-asking sales and in price per square foot is statistically reliable. The changes in median sale price, in days to contract (10 versus 12), and in any single quarter or segment could simply reflect which homes happened to sell, so we don't lead with them.
What we haven't measured is how 7.40% mortgage rates will affect buyers. Sales close weeks after a contract is signed, so September's closings mostly reflect offers made before rates jumped. October and November closings will be the first to show whether buyers respond. We're watching three things:
- Homes going under contract (the leading indicator). 24 houses went under contract from July through September, up from 22 a year earlier. A drop would show up here first.
- New listings versus inventory. New listings held at 35 for the quarter, and 8 houses were on the market at the end of September. More listings would loosen supply.
- Sale-to-list ratio. The typical house sold for 122% of its list price over 12 months, up from 104%. A fall toward 100% would signal buyers pushing back.
Thinking about a move this fall? Let's look at the data for your home, not the neighborhood headline. Contact our team and we'll send you a short read on your property. You can also browse all of our Bay Area market updates, or visit Kinoko Real Estate.
Noe Valley real estate market FAQ
How much does a house cost in Noe Valley?
In the 12 months through September 2026, the median Noe Valley single-family home sold for $3.20 million, or $1,662 per square foot, across 129 sales. Condos had a median of $1.675 million and tenancy-in-common (TIC) units $1.175 million. Source: Kinoko analysis of SFAR MLS data; below-market-rate units are excluded.
How long does it take to sell a home in Noe Valley?
The typical Noe Valley house went under contract 10 days after listing in the 12 months through September 2026, and about 4 in 10 went under contract within a week. Condos took a median of 13 days and TICs 23. The year-over-year change in days is small, so we wouldn't read much into it.
Do Noe Valley homes sell above asking price?
Yes. From October 2025 through September 2026, 83% of Noe Valley single-family homes (107 of 129) sold above asking price, up from 69% the year before. In July through September 2026, 87% did (20 of 23). Condos were at 78% over the 12 months, and TICs at 40%.
How do Noe Valley condos and TICs compare with houses?
Houses lead on price and pace: a $3.20 million median, 10 days to contract and 1.0 months of supply. Condos are close on competition, with 78% selling above asking and 1.8 months of supply. TICs are slower: 23 days, 40% above asking and 3.4 months of supply, which is a balanced market.
Sources
- Kinoko Real Estate analysis of San Francisco Association of Realtors (SFAR) MLS data, Noe Valley single-family homes, condominiums and tenancy-in-common units, through September 30, 2026. Retrieved October 13, 2026.
- Freddie Mac, "Mortgage Rates" (Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed average of 7.40% on October 8, 2026 and 6.30% a year earlier), freddiemac.com/pmms. Retrieved October 13, 2026.
- Jennifer Ludden, NPR, "AI wealth is creating a 'mansion shortage' and upending San Francisco's housing market", September 1, 2026, kunc.org. Retrieved October 13, 2026.
- Kinoko Real Estate, "San Francisco Real Estate Market Update - September 2026", kinokorealestate.com. Retrieved October 13, 2026.
Kevin Gueco | CA DRE #01461677