From its industrial railyard roots to its transformation into San Francisco’s newest waterfront gem, Mission Bay is a neighborhood that embodies change. Over the years, I’ve watched this community grow into a vibrant hub of sleek high-rises, waterfront parks, and buzzing urban energy. December 2024’s real estate numbers tell a compelling story, offering insight into how this neighborhood continues to evolve.
The Condo Kingdom: Mission Bay’s Unique Market
Unlike most San Francisco neighborhoods, Mission Bay’s real estate market is almost entirely composed of condominiums—no single-family homes, no Victorians, just modern, high-rise living. This distinction stems from Mission Bay’s planned development, which reimagined the area as an urban oasis for modern professionals.
December 2024 brought some fascinating trends to Mission Bay’s condo-dominated market, closing the year on a high note.
December 2024: A Strong Finish to the Year
The final month of 2024 saw significant momentum in Mission Bay:
- Median condo price: Jumped to $1,075,000, an astonishing 58.1% increase from December 2023’s $680,000. While this spike partially reflects a smaller sales sample, it’s a testament to Mission Bay’s increasing appeal.
- Sales volume: Climbed from 7 to 9 units (28.6% increase).
- Days on market (DOM): Dropped from 72 days to 47 days, marking a 34.7% reduction.
- Active listings: Declined sharply, from 21 units to 10 units—a 52.4% decrease, signaling tightening inventory.
2024 Annual Performance: A More Balanced Perspective
Looking at the year as a whole provides a clearer picture of Mission Bay’s market:
- Annual median sales price: Reached $975,000, a modest yet solid 3.7% increase compared to 2023.
- Total sales: Increased significantly, with 81 units sold, a 17.4% rise from 2023’s 69 units.
- Pending sales: Showed robust growth at 32.3% higher than 2023.
- New listings: Dropped by 15.4%, contributing to reduced inventory levels.
What’s Driving Mission Bay’s Appeal?
Mission Bay continues to draw interest from buyers looking for modern, convenient living in a highly connected urban environment. Some key factors driving the market include:
- Proximity to tech and biotech companies, offering an easy commute to some of the Bay Area’s top employers.
- The Chase Center: Home of the Golden State Warriors and host to world-class concerts and events.
- Waterfront access and outdoor spaces: The neighborhood offers new parks, green spaces, and stunning bay views.
- Modern, amenity-rich buildings: Residents enjoy features like gyms, roof decks, and concierge services.
- Excellent public transportation: Easy access to Caltrain, Muni, and freeways for commuters.
Market Dynamics and Opportunities
The months supply of inventory (MSI) dropped sharply from 3.9 months to 1.4 months, signaling a tight market where demand outpaces supply. While the percentage of properties selling above list price decreased slightly year-over-year (20.3% to 16.0%), December 2024 saw renewed competition, with 22.2% of properties selling above asking price.
For buyers, this slight easing of bidding wars compared to the yearly average presents an opportunity to enter the market strategically. For sellers, reduced competition due to shrinking inventory levels provides a favorable environment to secure strong offers.
Looking Ahead to 2025
As 2025 begins, Mission Bay’s real estate fundamentals remain strong. The combination of limited inventory, faster sales, and steady price appreciation paints a picture of stability and growth.
For buyers, Mission Bay offers modern living in one of San Francisco’s most dynamic neighborhoods, and for sellers, the area’s ongoing evolution continues to attract motivated buyers. That said, every building and unit here has its own unique characteristics, and navigating this market requires both insight and strategy.
Data Source: San Francisco Association of REALTORS® MLS, December 2024 Local Market Update