Updated October 13, 2026. Data through September 30, 2026.
Are Mission Bay condos selling above asking price?
Yes, and it's new. Of the 27 condos that sold in Mission Bay from July through September 2026, 67% closed above asking price, versus 6% in the same months of 2025. The typical condo went under contract in 11 days, down from about 32. The big question for this fall is mortgage rates: Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average hit 7.40% on October 8, 2026, the highest since November 2023.
This update covers condos in Mission Bay, using SFAR MLS sales through September 30.
What do the latest Mission Bay condo numbers show?
Over the 12 months through September 2026, Mission Bay condos sold faster, for more per square foot and with fewer price cuts than a year earlier. For comparison with the wider city, see our San Francisco market update.
Measure | Now | A year ago |
|---|---|---|
Sold above asking | 48% | 16% |
Median days to contract | 14 | 28 |
Sales that needed a price cut | 14% | 32% |
Median price per sq ft | $1,107 | $978 |
Median sale price | $1,299,000 | $1,075,000 |
Closed sales | 88 | 81 |
Summer 2026 versus summer 2025 (July to September):
- Sold above asking: 67% (18 of 27), up from 6%
- Median days to contract: 11, down from 32.5
- Median price per sq ft: $1,214, up 9.7% from $1,106
- New listings: 42, up from 22
- Condos going under contract: 29, up from 18
September on its own: 10 sales, a $1,529,000 median, 7.5 days to contract. Ten sales is a small number, so we lead with the longer view.
What changed in the Mission Bay condo market?
Competition, not just price. For two years, most Mission Bay condos sold at or below asking. Since the start of 2026, buyers have bid over list in two of every three sales in the strongest quarters. Sellers have noticed: only 14% of recent sales needed a price cut first, versus 32% a year ago.
Price per square foot is the number we'd trust. The median sale price is up 21% over twelve months, but we'd be careful with it. With about 88 sales a year, the median swings depending on which units happen to sell. Price per square foot adjusts for size. It's up 13% over twelve months (with this few sales, the true figure could plausibly sit anywhere from about 2% to 27%), and about 10% or more in each of the last three quarters compared with the same quarter last year, though any single quarter is a small sample.
We can check this another way. Seven Mission Bay condos sold in 2023 through 2025 and again in the past year. The median one sold for 11% more the second time. The range was wide, from about flat to over 50% higher. It's a sanity check, not a forecast.
Where the gains are. The biggest moves are in one-bedrooms and in older buildings (built 2008 or earlier). Price per square foot rose about 23% for one-bedrooms ($820 to $1,009) and 19% for older buildings ($838 to $998). Two-bedrooms rose about 14% ($1,091 to $1,242) and newer buildings about 6% ($1,191 to $1,259). One-bedrooms now spend a median of 22 days on the market instead of 46, and newer buildings sell in 12 days instead of 24.
Why is demand rising? Lower mortgage rates don't explain it: rates averaged 6.86% in September 2026, higher than the 6.35% of September 2025 (Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey). Citywide reporting points to AI. In 2026, Redfin found that about one in three Bay Area home sales from April through June were all cash, according to CNN's August 17, 2026 report on AI wealth and the San Francisco housing market, which ties the surge to the AI boom and tech-worker stock wealth. In 2026, Compass reported San Francisco condo prices rising 27% to $1.36 million, per Insurance Journal's April 7, 2026 coverage of the Compass report. Our Mission Bay numbers fit that pattern. MLS data can't show who the buyers are, though, so we can't confirm the cause neighborhood by neighborhood.
Is Mission Bay a buyer's or seller's market?
Right now it's a seller's market. Mission Bay has 1.7 months of supply, meaning it would take about seven weeks to sell every listed condo at the current pace. Under 3 months favors sellers, 3 to 6 is balanced, and over 6 favors buyers. Two years ago it was the opposite: from September 2023 through February 2024 supply stayed above 6 months and peaked at 13.7.
Are Mission Bay condo prices at a record?
No. A strong rebound can feel like a record, but the 12-month median condo price of $1,299,000 is only 6.9% above where it stood in September 2016, about 0.7% a year. It's still 22% below the September 2019 peak of $1,667,500, and price per square foot is up just 2.3% in ten years.
What does this mean for Mission Bay buyers and sellers?
If you're buying a Mission Bay condo
Our recommendation is to get your financing settled before you tour, because the best condos are under contract in about two weeks. Our buying process walks through each step.
- Two-bedrooms move fastest. The median two-bedroom sold for $1,571,500 and went under contract in 12 days. Decide on your numbers ahead of time so you can write quickly without stretching past your limits.
- Talk to a lender about rate locks and buydowns now. Rates moved up this month, and over the past year waiting meant paying more.
- Look for the listings that have sat. Of the 17 Mission Bay condos for sale in early October 2026, 3 have been on the market more than 60 days and 6 have already cut their price. That's where there's room to negotiate.
- Widen the search if you need to. Neighboring South Beach is a natural comparison.
If you're selling a Mission Bay condo
The goal is to use the demand that's here, and to price from this summer's sales, not last year's. Our selling process covers preparation and timing, and you can start with a free home valuation.
- Price from current comps. The median condo sold for 18% more this summer than last, and price per square foot is up about 10%. A price built on 2025 sales leaves money on the table.
- Mind the calendar. Over the past ten years, March through June brought 41% of Mission Bay condo sales. November through January is slower: condos took a median of 35 to 55 days to sell in those months, against about 20 to 27 in spring. Our recommendation is to decide by early November if you want to list before the holidays, or to plan a February or March launch. For the citywide picture, see our guide to the best time to sell a home in San Francisco.
- Prepare before you list. At 11 to 14 days to contract, the first week matters most.
What should you watch in the Mission Bay market this fall?
Here's the line between what we've measured and what we haven't. The jump in above-asking sales and the drop in days to contract are too large to be explained by which condos happened to sell. The twelve-month rise in price per square foot is too, though the range is wide. Quarter-by-quarter changes and the median sale price can simply reflect which condos happened to sell, so we don't lean on them.
What we haven't measured is how 7.4% rates will affect buyers. Contracts signed this fall close in winter, so October and November will show it first. We're watching three things:
- Condos going under contract. 29 this summer, up from 18.
- New listings. They doubled this summer (42 versus 22), but inventory ended September flat at 15 condos for sale, the same as a year ago, so buyers absorbed the new supply.
- Sale-to-list ratio. 102% this summer. A slide back below 100% would be the earliest sign of cooling.
Thinking about a move this fall? Let's look at the data for your building, not the citywide headline. Contact our team and we'll send you a short read on your unit. You can also browse all of our Bay Area market updates, or visit Kinoko Real Estate.
Mission Bay condo market FAQ
How much do condos cost in Mission Bay?
In the 12 months through September 2026, the median Mission Bay condo sold for $1,299,000, or $1,107 per square foot, based on 88 market-rate sales. One-bedrooms sold for a median of $840,000 and two-bedrooms for $1,571,500. Prices vary by building age and unit size.
How long does it take to sell a condo in Mission Bay?
The median Mission Bay condo went under contract in 14 days over the 12 months through September 2026, down from 28 days a year earlier. This summer it was 11 days. November through January is slower, with medians of 35 to 55 days over the past ten years.
Do Mission Bay condos sell above asking price?
Increasingly, yes. In July through September 2026, 67% of Mission Bay condos (18 of 27) sold above list price, versus 6% in the same months of 2025. Over the full 12 months through September, 48% sold above asking, up from 16% a year earlier.
What are BMR condos, and are they in these numbers?
Below-market-rate (BMR) condos are price-restricted homes that the City of San Francisco sells to eligible buyers by lottery and resells at restricted prices (SF.gov, Below Market Rate ownership programs). We excluded 27 closed sales of likely BMR units from the ten years of data, one in the last 12 months, because their prices do not reflect the open market.
Sources
- Kinoko Real Estate analysis of San Francisco Association of Realtors (SFAR) MLS data, Mission Bay condominiums, through September 30, 2026. Retrieved October 13, 2026.
- Freddie Mac, "Mortgage Rates" (Primary Mortgage Market Survey), freddiemac.com/pmms, rate of 7.40% as of October 8, 2026. Retrieved October 13, 2026.
- CNN (via KEYT), "A million dollars over asking: AI wealth is fueling housing market frenzy in San Francisco," August 17, 2026, keyt.com. Retrieved October 13, 2026.
- Insurance Journal, "San Francisco House Prices Hit Record $2.15 Million on AI Boom" (Compass data), April 7, 2026, insurancejournal.com. Retrieved October 13, 2026.
- City and County of San Francisco, Mayor's Office of Housing and Community Development, "Below Market Rate (BMR) ownership programs," sf.gov. Retrieved October 13, 2026.
Kevin Gueco | CA DRE #01461677