The Local Lowdown
Quick Take:
- Single-family prices are holding firm year over year, with Alameda County up slightly and Contra Costa County up nearly 3%, while the condo picture has split sharply between the two counties.
- For-sale inventory continues to run well below last year, with single-family listings down almost 17% and condos down nearly 10% year over year.
- Single-family homes are selling faster than they did last August in both counties, though the pace has cooled from the spring peak.
- Months of supply remains firmly in seller's market territory for single-family homes, while condos sit on the buyer-friendly side of the ledger.
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.
Single-family prices hold their ground as the condo market splits in two
August delivered a steady, if unspectacular, close to the East Bay's summer selling season on the single-family side. In Alameda County, the median single-family home sold for $1,269,000, up 0.71% from the $1,260,000 recorded last August and essentially unchanged from July's $1,270,000. That puts Alameda roughly $121,000 below the May peak of $1,390,000, which is the normal seasonal fade we see as the calendar turns toward fall. Contra Costa County looked stronger on a year-over-year basis, with the median single-family home selling for $865,000, a 2.98% gain over last August's $840,000 and flat against July.
The condo market is where the two counties have gone their separate ways. Alameda County condos posted a median sale price of $562,500, up 2.37% year over year and up 1.72% from July, continuing a slow, grinding recovery off the $515,000 January low. Contra Costa County condos, by contrast, gave background in a meaningful way. The median condo there sold for $444,950, down 12.75% from last August's $510,000 and off 5.63% from July's $471,500. That is the softest reading we have seen in Contra Costa's condo segment since early 2025, and it is worth watching closely over the next couple of months to determine whether this is a thin-month anomaly or the start of a genuine downtrend.
Inventory keeps shrinking as the summer listing window closes
Supply continues to be the defining story of the East Bay market. Single-family homes for sale stood at 2,662 units in August, down 16.68% from the 3,195 available a year ago and off 5.20% from July's 2,808. Notably, this decline is not coming from a lack of sellers. New single-family listings actually rose 3.76% year over year to 1,792, but with 1,230 homes selling during the month, the available pool kept draining.
Condos followed a similar path. For-sale condo inventory finished August at 934 units, a 9.58% decline year over year and a sharp 10.71% drop from July's 1,046. Unlike single-family homes, condo sellers pulled back, with new condo listings falling 10.31% from last August to 383. Condo sales, meanwhile, edged up 3.77% year over year to 248 closings. Taken together, the East Bay is heading into the fall with a thinner set of choices than it had a year ago in both property types, which should provide a floor under pricing even as seasonal demand softens.
Single-family homes still outpacing last year, condos more mixed
Tight supply continues to translate into quick sales on the single-family side. The average Alameda County single-family home sold in 14 days in August, a 17.65% improvement over the 17 days it took last August, and a touch faster than July's 15 days. Contra Costa County single-family homes averaged 20 days, which is a 9.09% improvement year over year but a noticeable slowdown from 16 days in July and 13 days back in May, reflecting the usual late-summer cooling.
Condos remain the slower of the two segments. Alameda County condos averaged 32 days on market, an improvement of 15.79% over the 38 days recorded last August, though up meaningfully from an unusually brisk 22 days in July. Contra Costa County condos also averaged 32 days, matching July but running 23.08% longer than the 26 days it took a year ago. That combination of longer marketing times and a lower median price tells a consistent story about where the softness in this market currently sits.
Single-family homes stay a seller's market while condos favor buyers
When determining whether a market is a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller’s market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers’ markets.
By that standard, the East Bay's single-family market remains clearly in sellers' hands. Alameda County closed August with 1.9 months of supply, down 17.39% from 2.3 months a year ago, while Contra Costa County sat at 2.4 months, a 17.24% decline from last August's 2.9 months. Both counties have now trended lower for several consecutive months after peaking around 2.1 and 2.5 months in late spring, meaning buyers of detached homes are facing tighter conditions this fall than they did last fall. The condo market continues to sit on the other side of the line, with Alameda County at 4.1 months and Contra Costa County at 4.0 months of supply. Both figures are improvements over last August's 4.8 and 4.4 months respectively, and both have come down from spring highs near 4.9 and 4.7 months, so the condo segment is tightening even as it remains a buyers' market. For sellers of condos, particularly in Contra Costa County, pricing discipline and patience remain essential. For buyers, this is still the corner of the East Bay market where negotiating leverage exists.
Local Lowdown Data
