The Local Lowdown
Quick Take:
- Median sale prices in the East Bay remain shockingly resilient, barely moving on a year-over-year basis.
- With considerably more inventory on the market than this time last year, inventories have exploded in the East Bay.
- Although Inventories are up, listings are still being bought up at break-neck speeds.
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.
The East Bay has retained its tremendous resilience
Over the course of the past two years, single-family homes in the East Bay have had shockingly little movement in median sale prices, making it one of the least volatile counties within the Bay Area. Last month, the East Bay extended this streak, as median sale prices for single-family homes decreased by 0.01% in Contra Costa County, and 1.46% in Alameda County. On the flip side, the condo market hasn’t enjoyed this stability so far this year. Median sale prices for condos in Alameda County were down 16.43% on a year-over-year basis in Alameda County, while median sale prices in Contra Costa County were down just 0.71%.
Inventory levels continue to surge upward throughout the East Bay
Although prices have been incredibly resilient in the East Bay, the future of this stability is very uncertain, as inventories have been growing at a tremendous rate. In the single-family home market, the East Bay saw a new 2-year high in terms of inventory, as the number of active listings grew by 31.42% on a year-over-year basis. Condo inventories pulled back from their 2-year high this month, but still grew by 22.80% on a year-over-year basis.
While there are roughly the same number of single-family homes and condos hitting the market, what’s causing inventories to spike is the fact that fewer listings are being sold. We saw 15.57% fewer single-family homes and 25.09% fewer condos sold in the month of May when compared to a year ago.
Listings are spending comparatively more time on the market
The East Bay is quite interesting when you look at the amount of time listings are spending on the market. If I told you that the average single-family home in Contra Costa County is spending 40% more time on the market now than it was last year, you’d probably assume that listings are sitting for weeks on end. However, homes are still moving incredibly quickly. Despite spending 40% more time on the market, the average single-family home in Contra Costa County is taken off the market in just 14 days.
The single-family market is dominated by sellers, while the condo market is controlled by buyers
When determining whether a market is a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a sellers’ market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers’ markets.
The East Bay continues to be divided, with buyers having more control of the condo market, and sellers having more control of the single-family market. In terms of single-family homes, there are 2.3 months and 2.8 months worth of supply on the market in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, respectively. Whereas there are 4.8 and 3.9 months worth of condo supply on the market in those same areas.
