The Local Lowdown
Quick Take:
San Francisco single-family home prices posted their strongest year-over-year gain of 2026, surging more than 26%, while the East Bay's condo market roared back to life with its best performance in years.
Inventory levels have reached crisis levels in several markets, with San Francisco single-family home listings down nearly 60% year-over-year and Silicon Valley down more than 26%.
Single-family homes are selling in two weeks or less across the region, with buyers acting decisively in the face of extremely limited supply.
The Bay Area is overwhelmingly a seller's market for single-family homes, with San Francisco sitting at just 0.7 months of supply, while the condo market continues to offer buyers more leverage in several counties.
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.
Prices are climbing across most of the Bay Area, with San Francisco leading the charge
June brought broad-based price appreciation to much of the Bay Area, headlined by San Francisco's extraordinary 26.47% year-over-year surge in single-family home median sale price to $2,150,000. Competition in San Francisco has reached unprecedented levels, with the average single-family home selling for more than 26% over the original asking price. In Silicon Valley, San Mateo County posted an impressive 7.50% gain to $2,150,000, and Santa Cruz County ticked up 1.12% to $1,350,000, though Santa Clara County declined 8.57% to $1,920,000.
The North Bay saw strong gains in three of four counties, with Marin County climbing 8.63% to $1,825,000, Sonoma County up 2.94% to $875,000, and Solano County gaining 2.63% to $585,000, while Napa County continued to struggle with a 12.38% decline. The East Bay delivered continued good news, with Alameda and Contra Costa County single-family homes up 1.52% and 1.67%, respectively. Perhaps the most notable development this month is the remarkable turnaround in the East Bay condo market, where Alameda County condos surged 8.35% year-over-year and Contra Costa County condos gained 5.76%, a dramatic reversal from the double-digit declines we were seeing just a few months ago.
The Bay Area's inventory crisis has reached its most severe point yet
Inventory levels across the Bay Area have dropped to some of the lowest levels we've seen in recent memory. San Francisco is experiencing the most extreme shortage, with single-family inventory down a staggering 59.09% year-over-year, leaving just 135 single-family homes available for sale in the entire city. Condo inventory in San Francisco has also been cut dramatically, down 44.25% to just 378 units, meaning there are barely 500 total homes on the market citywide.
Silicon Valley's inventory has also plummeted, with single-family homes down 26.15% and condos down 11.75%. The North Bay is down 32.66% for single-family homes and 12.75% for condos, while the East Bay has seen single-family inventory decline by 26.79% and condo inventory drop by 10.36%. New listings remain well below last year's pace in most markets, with the North Bay down 23.22% and Silicon Valley down 9.59%. However, sales activity has emerged in several areas, with North Bay single-family sales jumping 11.34% year-over-year and Silicon Valley sold listings up 6.91%, demonstrating that demand continues to absorb whatever supply enters the market.
Single-family homes are selling faster than ever, and the condo market is picking up steam
The combination of razor-thin inventory and strong demand has created one of the fastest-moving markets the Bay Area has seen in years. San Francisco single-family homes are selling in just 12 days, a 14.29% improvement year-over-year, while San Mateo and Santa Clara County homes are also moving in just 12 days each. East Bay single-family homes are selling in 13 and 14 days in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, respectively, with both counties posting meaningful year-over-year improvements.
Marin County single-family homes are moving in just 18 days, 28% faster than this time last year, while Sonoma County homes are selling in 32 days and Solano County in 30 days. The condo market is also showing encouraging signs of acceleration. San Francisco condos are now moving in 23 days, down 28.13% year-over-year, and San Mateo County condos are selling 10.26% faster. In the North Bay, Sonoma and Solano County condos are moving 22.50% and 26.42% faster, respectively. However, pockets of sluggishness remain, as Santa Clara and Santa Cruz County condos are taking 40.91% and 44.74% longer to sell than they were a year ago.
San Francisco leads one of the tightest seller's markets the Bay Area has ever seen
When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look at the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has less than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered a buyers' market.
San Francisco has become one of the most extreme seller's markets in the state, with just 0.7 months of single-family home supply and 1.8 months of condo supply, meaning every available single-family home would be sold in just three weeks at the current pace. Both figures are down more than 50% year-over-year. Across Silicon Valley, San Mateo County sits at just 1.3 months of single-family supply, down 38.10%, while Santa Clara County has 1.6 months and Santa Cruz County has 3.3 months. The East Bay remains a strong seller's market for single-family homes, with Alameda County at 1.9 months and Contra Costa County at 2.4 months, both down roughly 26% year-over-year. In the North Bay, Marin County has just 2 months of supply, down 57.45%, while Solano County sits at 2.8 months and Sonoma County at 3.4 months. Napa County remains the lone buyer's market at 6.8 months.
The condo market continues to favor buyers in several areas, with Alameda County at 4.4 months, Contra Costa County at 4.3 months, Napa County at 6.6 months, Solano County at 4.8 months, and Sonoma County at 4.5 months, although these figures have been trending downward as the condo market gradually tightens. As the summer selling season hits its stride, sellers across the single-family home market are holding virtually all the cards.
